Subject: Cryptocurrency; Volatility clustering; Leverage effects; Autoregressive Moving Average - Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARMA-GARCH) model; Risk management; Price dynamics
Year: 2023
Type: Article
Title: The Cryptocurrency Market Through the Scope of Volatility Clustering and Leverage Effects
Author: Peovski, Filip
Author: Cvetkoska, Violeta
Author: Ivanovski, Igor
Abstract: In the realm of financial markets, the manifestation of volatility clustering serves as a pivotal element, indicative of the inherent fluctuations characterizing financial instruments. This attribute acquires pronounced relevance within the sphere of cryptocurrencies, a sector renowned for its elevated risk profile. The present analysis, conducted through the Autoregressive Moving Average - Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARMA-GARCH) model, seeks to elucidate the enduring nature of volatility clustering and the occurrence of leverage effects within this domain. Over the course of a four-year time frame, it was observed that Bitcoin diverges from the anticipated Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) effects, in contrast to Ethereum and Cardano, which exhibit marked volatility clustering. Binance Coin, Ripple, and Dogecoin, whilst demonstrating moderate clustering, uniformly reflect the existence of leverage effects. An exception to this pattern was identified in Ripple, where it was discerned that positive market news exerts a disproportionate influence on log returns. The findings of this study illuminate the critical influence of both leverage effects and volatility clustering on the pricing dynamics of cryptocurrencies. It underscores the imperative for a nuanced comprehension of risk management in the context of cryptocurrency investments, given their susceptibility to abrupt price fluctuations. The distinct degrees to which these phenomena are manifested across diverse cryptocurrencies accentuate the necessity for a tailored risk management approach, resonant with the unique attributes of the asset in question. Such strategies, accounting for the potential amplification of losses through leverage, may encompass prudent position sizing, portfolio diversification, and the implementation of stress tests, thereby fortifying the investment against the dual perils of volatility clustering and leverage effects. The implications of this analysis serve to inform investors, providing a foundation upon which to construct risk management tactics that are responsive to the idiosyncrasies of the cryptocurrency market.
Publisher:
Relation: Acadlore Transactions on Applied Mathematics and Statistics
Identifier: oai:repository.ukim.mk:20.500.12188/28602
Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12188/28602
